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At 12:45 GMT Thursday, the ECB will announce no changes in the 1.0% short-term refinancing rate, nor in the 0.25% deposit rate or the 1.75% marginal lending rate. That's been the rate structure since last May and is unlikely to get modified before late 2010. If asked at the press conference that starts at 13:30 GMT, President Trichet will say the decision to keep these rates was unanimous. A statement from the central bank will include many familiar phrases, calling present policy appropriate and indications of expected consumer price inflation well-anchored and consistent with the Bank's target of below but close to 2%. Recent economic developments will be characterized as being within staff expectations and leaving the baseline forecast of a gradually-paced recovery and sub-target but positive inflation intact. The main task of Thursday's press conference is to flesh out some details for how non-standard forms of stimulus are to withdrawn without engendering expectations of a near-term or even medium-term rise in the Bank's interest rates. High uncertainty will again be stressed, as the arduous process of global deleveraging continues.

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New staff forecasts will be released, and like every December such will be extended out an additional year -- in this case to 2011. Because of higher third-quarter growth than assumed last September and indications of continuing momentum in the present quarter, projected 2010 GDP, whose range in the September forecast centered on +0.2%, will get revised closer to 1%. CPI inflation may get revised up, too, but to a much more marginal extent. The new 2011 projections will probably lie below 2% for both growth and prices, and in the latter case still be under target. The table below summarizes the history of previous staff forecast ranges, which are released quarterly. The left-most column indicates the month when each forecast in that row was made.